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Unlike the various sites of betting tips on the web that impose to have
20/25 accounts in the various bookmakers, we know the difficulty to have a so high number of accounts
and we are sure that is not essential to arrive to get good results. Our goal is that to propose a
methodology of betting that you will understand if you will have the patience to read the pages of
this site and, above all, if you will have the patience to follow our methodology for some time.
Our odds will make reference to 4 books + 1 bettingexchange: Pinnacle, William Hill, Unibet, StanJames and Betfair.
Every day we will publish, at least two hours before the beginning of every match, our odds
(our "blackboard"), then we will give our predictions declaring the unities to bet that
they will generally go from 0,5 to 5. Daily our budget will be adjourned, so that, during the time,
you can see what we are proposing you.
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Single |
The reason for which the single is more convenient than the multiple is enough simple.
We, at the beginnings, played the famous multiples with 5/6 events, nobody in fact told us that in
that way the bookmaker was enormously benefited. We explain you the reason.
Do you know what is the
fee? The fee is the percentage that the bookmaker holds back in a bet to fixed odd.
The calculation of the fee is fundamental to compare the odds among various bookmakers.
In an event with 1x2 it is determined like follows:
F = 1-(100/(100/(quota 1) + 100/(quota X) + 100/quota 2)))
Example: Palermo-Udinese 2,25 - 2,57 - 3,60
1-(100/((100/2,25) + (100/2,57) + (100/3,60))) = 1-(100/ (42,73+32,78+35,71)) = 1-(100/ 111,22) = 1-0,9= 0,1= 10%
In this case the fee for the single event is 10% for the book. If you play two events in multiple
the fee becomes of 20% if you play three events it becomes 30% and so on... simple, isn't it?
We know... many of you are asking: but if I play a single "I win little money!" It doesn't have sense.
Only the percentage of win at the end of the year has sense, and we assure you that with the multiple
the sign, at the end of the year, is always negative. |
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Money Management |
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You must always have under control how much you are losing or winning and to establish
a sum to destine to this type of investment.
The management of the initial capital is an element that it is
often underestimated, but it has a fundamental importance for any type of game. Every theory on the games
(also "rigorously" mathematics) start from the initial capital.
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Value Bet |
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This is unquestionably the fundamental aspect of the winning philosophy. Let's explain it.
The most common error in the world of the betting, is betting without consider
the value of the odd: "I bet Roddick against Volandri because it is stronger and it has
therefore more probabilities to win."Nobody doubt that Roddick has more probabilities to win,
but, according to you, the bookmaker doesn't perfectly know, at least like you, that Roddick
is a clear favorite? He perfectly knows it and he makes the odds. So, this is the definition
of odd:
"the odd assigned to an event is the probability that the bookmaker
assigns to that event to became true.
Once you have understood this concept, and We are sure that many of you that are reading were
never thought about it, it will result evident that the only way to be able to compete with
the bookmaker, that , remembers , he is a punter too, is finding those odds that allow us to
be in advantage in comparison to the real probability (the Value Bet). This is the most
difficult point, but for this we are here to study and we publish, free and daily, our odds
without the influence of the market. It is opportune to underline that, really because of the
fact that the most of people, bet on the "dog" (favorite), the bookmaker will rate,
very often, the dog lower in comparison to its real possibility of victory, inevitably he must
rate the underdog higher in comparison to its real possibility of win. We will go to strike
really this "weakness" (we repeat, aware from the book) of the system of the fixed odd.
We don't bet, therefore, who think has more probabilities to
win in absolute, but we bet that, that according us, has more possibilities to win in
comparison to that attributed him by the bookmaker!
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Unit |
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The fact to use the unity as "unity of measure" of our game, rather than the figure that we want to risk, directly is
not an invenction. Of fact what risk they are always money, but further to a best management
allows (according to us and not only) psychologically to overcome the greatest error that a player commits (and on this point, who of
us doesn't have to make an examination of conscience!!) what that is to want to recover and therefore to denaturalize the prorpio game.
We realize that to words it seems easy, but it can be done. Says this, an unity can be worth 1 as 1000 , it doesn't care,
each plays according to his possibilities and his head what is fundamental it is that if he establishes, for instance, that he
plays 1/2U on events even given to 5,00, half unity it has to be always both that they are 50 cents that 500 .
What can be done in the time, if the things are all right, it is to increase the value of the single unity; then if you have for
instance departed dividing your initial capital in such way to have 100U, if you maintain constant in the time this relationship you
will see that the value of the unity increases or it decreases in the time without you are obsessed from the "how much bet". We
clarify you the things with an example, so we understand there: If our initial capital is of 1000 and we want to get 100U we
obviously have 1000/100=10 and therefore our U=10 , we put that after a period of time x, our capital has reached 2000 we will now have that
our unity is U=20 (2000/100), vice versa if we had remained with 500 it would be U=5 .
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